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Within the considerable disarray surrounding the American military actions on Venezuela, the seizure of leader Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “run” the country and “take back the oil”, a single fact remains evident – this establishes a profoundly disturbing precedent.

Past Interference and a New Threshold Crossed

The United States possesses a dark record of interference, invasion and occupation in that part of the world, but the early hours of Saturday marked its first major military attack on the soil of a South American nation. “American dominance in the western hemisphere will never be questioned again,” the President stated.

The decision to unilaterally attack another independent nation and seize its president – just a short time after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – possesses far-reaching consequences. We all have reason to be worried.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has remarked that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and rejected prominent critic and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other factions of the headless administration are even more hardline.

The Superpower as Rogue State

A man who won power vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He does not see the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is transforming it into a renegade nation.

He holds the view that the United States' strength permits it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: observe the military actions against Nigeria and Iranian installations. He promises that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this most recent venture “will pay for itself”.

An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came absent any United Nations mandate or authorization from lawmakers; Democrats were not even informed and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump aims not merely to stretch international norms, but to destroy them.

Set aside the signal this transmits to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will almost certainly fuel further adventurism.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

No one buys the justification that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself made it clear that he is motivated by the lure of oil as well as a desire to project strength, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the appetite for triumphalism as his support at home declines.

Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance

The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The firm response from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode underscores the institution’s growing irrelevance.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could yet press him to redirect his gaze inward – but soaring healthcare premiums, financial discontent and distracting files increase his appetite for distraction.

We are not yet 12 months into his four-year term. Other governments may regret it if they fail to speak up today, with the question of which nation is next looming.