Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are fought: hopeful statements are issued from different nations. Immense energy is allocated on managing particular approaches. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability enabled by current data. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably delivered by Western nations. Every firing shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – probably allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its target.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: multiple fatalities, damage and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a dependence that regional partners are evidently unprepared to fill in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new proposal from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This trend will, no doubt, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership functions according to a principle understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing lives and land but preventing a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not move to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to kill the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.
