A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in universities but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Both writes two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
